The endless debate about Wheter or not the NBA draft lottery is manipulated has always been a logical issue in the face of emotion, as all conspiracy theories tend to be. Talk logically there is no way to be manipulated. That not only trusts an idea that all those who supervise the lottery somehow are found in some way and no one leaked any information, but also open the league to incredible litigation.
So sure, ask me in October and I will probably laugh at the idea that the lottery is manipulated, but after That Shit last night? Give me a break.
In case it has been lost: the Dallas Mavericks magically found a way to use their 1.8% chance of obtaining general selection No. 1 to rise from 11 ° in general and win the Cooper Flagg raffle. It is a really notable luck only a few months after the team changed Luka Doncic to the Lakers, helping to solidify the largest and most lucrative team in the NBA in one of the most important markets in the League.
This was also accompanied by more notable teams that jumped at the expense of smaller markets, with the Spurs jumping from No. 8 to No. 2, a movement will allow San Antonio to match a star with Victor Wembanyama and the Sixers that move from No. 5 to No. 3, at the expense of Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets.
- The Mavericks had a probability of 1.8% of obtaining number 1 in general
- Spurs had a 6.3% probability to obtain number 2 in general
- Sixers had a 10.6% probability to obtain number 3 in general
While calculating the current The chances of this are too difficult to understand for my mono brain, since each event is not independent or among themselves, it is enough to say that we can call these “astronomical” probabilities.
And look, “astronomical” things happen. These are sports we are talking about. We see that the unlikely is done in a night base, and the moments that seem impossible come to life in each season.
The problem is that this continues to happen when it comes to the NBA draft lottery, again and again. It is also repeated when a team exchanges the star player in the previous season. Therefore, it is natural when this is the collective response.
This is so manipulated. What happened to the balls labeled with the names of the team? You are not cheating anyone with this farce. You choose 4 random numbers and someone shouts: “That’s Dallas!” SMH
– KB (@kalkimd) May 13, 2025
Manipulated. If you wanted a real transparency, each combination of numbers of each team would be seen in the leg, instead of someone shouting to a random team like the winner.
– W. Bryant (@sigmaman_1914) May 13, 2025
At this point, there is no reason to take the NBA in its IS that the lottery process is above the board, because we have seen that this happens too many times. In the last 15 years, a total of __ team has risen to the number 1 selection of the percentage of opportunities of a single digit, or after an important player change.
- 2011: The Cleveland Cavaliers move to number 1 to take Kyrie Irving of a probability of 2.8% after LeBron James leaves for the Miami Heat
- 2012: New Orleans pelicans move to number 1 to take Anthony Davis of a probability of 13.7% after the team exchanges Chris Paul to the clippers
- 2014: The Cleveland Cavaliers move to number 1 to take Andrew Wiggins of a probability of 1.7% after the team continued fighting from LeBron.
- 2019: New Orleans pelicans move to number 1 to take Zion Williamson of a 6% opportunity after trade with Anthony Davis to Lakers
- 2025: The Dallas Mavericks move
If we simply look at the brass studs with the no. 1 General choice of all these scenarios was implicit or happening 26 times of 500, or a cumulative percentage or 5.2%. If we did not make empirical evidence of why the NBA would pay franchises for helping the great teams on the market, it would be one thing, but this continues to happen, and beyond.
Nothing will change. We will return here in four years when the Las Vegas Mavericks win. 1 General selection of low probabilities after tradeing with Cooper Flagg to Los Angeles Lakers. We will complain once again, and basketball will continue to turn.
Sorry for Jazz, Wizard and Hornet fans, because they were drained.
