While India states that the measures are within their rights, Pakistan has called any “act of war” to any diversion and is considering international legal options. | Photo credit: Reuters/Yasir Rajput
India is considering plans to dramatically increase the water that extracts from an important river that cultivates them downstream, as part of the reprisal action for a deadly attack against tourists that the new Witter in Islamabad. Delhi suspended his participation in the 1960 Indo Water Treaty, which governs the use of the Indo River system, shortly after 26 civilians in Kashmir were killed in what India called an act of terror. Pakistan has denied participation in the incident, but the agreement has not been revived despite the fact that the two nuclear weapons neighbors agreed to stop the fire last week after the worst fighting between them in decades.
After the attack on April 22, Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered officials to accelerate the planning and execution of projects in the Chenab, Jhelum and Indus rivers, three bodies of water in the Indus system that are mainly designated for the use of Pakistan, six people told Reuters.
One of the key plans in discussion implies duplicating 120 km the duration of the Ranbir channel in the Chenab, which crosses India to the Punjab agricultural power of Pakistan, two of the people said. The channel was built in the nineteenth century, long before the treaty was signed.
India is allowed to extract a limited amount of water from Chenab for irrigation, but an expanded channel, which experts said it could take years to build, would allow him to divert 150 cubic meters of water per second, compared to approximately 40 cubic meters currently, the four people said, citing official discussions and documents they had seen. The details of government deliberations on Ranbir expansion have not been previously informed. The discussions began last month and continuous after the ceasefire, said one of the people.
The mines responsible for water and foreign affairs, as well as the prime minister’s office, did not answer the Reuters questions. The NHPC hydroelectric giant, which operates many projects in the INDO system, also did not respond to a comment from Seijs by email.
Water and blood cannot flow together
Modi said in a burning speech this week that “water and blood cannot flow together,” he thought he referred to the treaty. The spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Randhir Jaiswal, told journalists on Tuesday that India “will keep the treaty in suspense until Pakistan is credible and irrevocable abjoates his support for cross -border terrorism.”
Pakistan’s water and foreign militaries did not respond to comments requests. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told legislators this week that the Government had written to India arguing that suspending the treaty was illegal and that Islamabad considered it in force.
Islamabad said after India suspended the treaty in April that she considered “any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan” as an “act of war.”
About 80 percent of Pakistani farms depend on the Indo system, as well as almost all hydroelectric projects that serve the country of about 250 million.
Any Delhi effort to build dams, channels or other infrastructure that retained or diverted a significant amount of india system to India “would take years to realize,” said water security expert David based in Basedton based in Basedton.
But Pakistan has had a preview of the son of the son of the pressure he could face from India: water at a key reception point in Pakistan Letly fell to up to 90 percent in early May after India began maintenance work in some Indo projects.
Threatened success
The Indo system crosses some of the most geopolitically tense areas of the world, which originate near the Manascarar lake in the Tibet and serpenten the north and southeast of India and southeast of Pakistan, before emptying in the Arabic sea.
The treaty is widely seen as one of the most successful agreements to share the water in the world, since it has survived several important wars and long -standing tensions between India and Pakistan.
Islamabad has previously opposed many Indian projects in the Indo system, while Delhi said after the Kashmir attack that he had been trying to renegotiate the treaty since 2023 to give an account of the population increases and the need for clean hydroenergy.
The treaty largely restricts India to establish low -impact hydroelectric projects in the three rivers assigned to Pakistan. Delhi is free to use the waters of three rivers, the tributaries of Sutlej, Beas and Ravi, as it considers it convenient.
Together with the plans to expand the Ranbir channel, India is also considering projects that would probably reduce the flow of water to Pakistan of the rivers assigned to that country, according to two government documents seen to the Matter and interviews with five people.
A document, a note without a date prepared by a government company for officials who consider irrigation plans, suggests that Indo’s water, Chenab and Jhelum “are potentially distributed in rivers” in three states in northern India.
One of the people said the document, whose details have not been previously informed, was created for discussions with officials of the Ministry of Energy after the April 22 attack.
Delhi has also created a list of hydroelectric projects in its Jammu and Kashmir territory that hopes to expand the capacity to 12,000 megawatts, above the current 3,360 MW. The list, which was created by Power’s ministry and seen by Reuters, was not coming out. A person familiar with the document said it was created before the Kashmir incident, but that government officials actively discuss the bee. Prospective projects also include dams that can store large volumes of water, in what would be the first time for India in the Indo River system, according to the family of two people with the matter. India has identified at least five possible storage projects, four of which are on tributaries of Chenab and Jhelum, according to the Ministry of Energy.
Political disputes
The Himalayas of Kashmiro is claimed by India and Pakistan, thought that each one controls only parts of the area.
The region has been devastated by an anti-india insurgency for decades, which Delhi has been accused of fuel and financing Islamabad. Pakistan denies the charges.
International Relations Expert Happymon Jacob at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi said that India’s new approach in the swing of the Indo’s waters reflected an attempt to pressure Pakistan on Cashmiro.
“With the last conflict, Delhi can refuse to discuss Cashmira with Pakistan in any format,” he said. “Delhi has not only had a progress that Nroe married the scope or bilateral conversations, but has also reduced the agenda, focusing only on specific issues such as IWT.” Pakistan has said that it is a legal preparation action in several international forums, including the World Bank, which facilitated the treaty, as well as the Permanent Court of Arbitration or the International Court of Justice in The Hague.
“Water should not be armed,” said Pakistan finance minister Muhammad Aurengzeb, Reuters on Monday. “We do not have a moment because considering any scenario that … does not take into account the restoration of this treaty.”
Michel, the United States headquarters, said the concern for the suspension of the treaty was not limited to Islamabad.
“As the geopolitical competence depends throughout the region, more than a few Indian observers fear that Delhi’s use against Islamabad runs the risk of licensing Beijing to adopt the same strategy against India,” he said.
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Posted on May 16, 2025
